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Jeonju vs Gangneung City — K3 League 2026

Jeonju
Jeonju
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Gangneung City
Gangneung City
5/30/2020K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 3Jeonju Civil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Jeonju26%
×Draw25%
Gangneung City48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeonju
1.10
Gangneung City
1.58

Gangneung City creates 44% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 108 away

creates per match

Jeonju
0.91
Gangneung City
1.07

allows per match

Jeonju
2.09
Gangneung City
1.30

finishing

Jeonju+0.00on par
Gangneung City+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonju ↓

Gangneung City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jeonju or draw
52%
Jeonju or Gangneung City
75%
Draw or Gangneung City
74%

Winning margin

Jeonju wins by 2+
10%
Gangneung City wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Jeonju 1+ goals
67%
Jeonju 2+ goals
30%
Jeonju 3+ goals
10%
Gangneung City 1+ goals
79%
Gangneung City 2+ goals
47%
Gangneung City 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Jeonju (draw refunded)
35%
Gangneung City (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonju at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

Gangneung City away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.30 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonju attack 0.91 + Gangneung City defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.10

Gangneung City attack 1.07 + Jeonju defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jeonju scores more
26%
level
25%
Gangneung City scores more
48%

Gangneung City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gangneung City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K3 League: Jeonju 1–3 Gangneung City

Gangneung City beat Jeonju 3-1 in K3 League on May 30, 2020.

The match was played at Jeonju Civil Stadium in Jeonju.