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Jeonju vs Cheongju — K3 League 2026

Jeonju
Jeonju
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Cheongju
Cheongju
9/26/2020K3 LeagueK3 League · Relegation Round - 3Jeonju Civil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Jeonju27%
×Draw26%
Cheongju47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeonju
1.08
Cheongju
1.49

Cheongju creates 38% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 40 away

creates per match

Jeonju
0.91
Cheongju
0.90

allows per match

Jeonju
2.09
Cheongju
1.25

finishing

Jeonju+0.00on par
Cheongju+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonju ↓

Cheongju →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Jeonju or draw
53%
Jeonju or Cheongju
74%
Draw or Cheongju
73%

Winning margin

Jeonju wins by 2+
10%
Cheongju wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Jeonju 1+ goals
66%
Jeonju 2+ goals
29%
Jeonju 3+ goals
10%
Cheongju 1+ goals
77%
Cheongju 2+ goals
44%
Cheongju 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Jeonju (draw refunded)
37%
Cheongju (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonju at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

Cheongju away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.25 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonju attack 0.91 + Cheongju defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Cheongju attack 0.90 + Jeonju defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Jeonju scores more
27%
level
26%
Cheongju scores more
47%

Cheongju at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cheongju will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K3 League: Jeonju 2–3 Cheongju

Cheongju beat Jeonju 3-2 in K3 League on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Jeonju Civil Stadium in Jeonju.