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Jeonju vs Busan Transportation — K3 League 2026

Jeonju
Jeonju
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Busan Transportation
Busan Transportation
6/20/2020K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 5Jeonju Civil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Jeonju24%
×Draw24%
Busan Transportation52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeonju
1.07
Busan Transportation
1.71

Busan Transportation creates 60% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 107 away

creates per match

Jeonju
0.91
Busan Transportation
1.33

allows per match

Jeonju
2.09
Busan Transportation
1.23

finishing

Jeonju+0.00on par
Busan Transportation+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonju ↓

Busan Transportation →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Jeonju or draw
48%
Jeonju or Busan Transportation
76%
Draw or Busan Transportation
76%

Winning margin

Jeonju wins by 2+
9%
Busan Transportation wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Jeonju 1+ goals
66%
Jeonju 2+ goals
29%
Jeonju 3+ goals
9%
Busan Transportation 1+ goals
82%
Busan Transportation 2+ goals
51%
Busan Transportation 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Jeonju (draw refunded)
31%
Busan Transportation (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonju at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

Busan Transportation away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.23 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonju attack 0.91 + Busan Transportation defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.07

Busan Transportation attack 1.33 + Jeonju defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Jeonju scores more
24%
level
24%
Busan Transportation scores more
52%

Busan Transportation at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Busan Transportation will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeonju vs Busan Transportation

Busan Transportation beat Jeonju 2-0 in K3 League on June 20, 2020.

The match was played at Jeonju Civil Stadium in Jeonju.