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Jeonbuk Motors vs Urawa — AFC Champions League 2018

Jeonbuk Motors
Jeonbuk Motors
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Urawa
Urawaadvanced
8/25/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Semi-finalsSaitama Stadium 2002

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Jeonbuk Motors43%
×Draw24%
Urawa32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeonbuk Motors
1.59
Urawa
1.35

Jeonbuk Motors creates 18% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 16 away

creates per match

Jeonbuk Motors
2.18
Urawa
1.75

allows per match

Jeonbuk Motors
0.95
Urawa
1.00

finishing

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par
Urawa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonbuk Motors ↓

Urawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Jeonbuk Motors or draw
68%
Jeonbuk Motors or Urawa
76%
Draw or Urawa
57%

Winning margin

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+
22%
Urawa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals
80%
Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals
47%
Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals
21%
Urawa 1+ goals
74%
Urawa 2+ goals
39%
Urawa 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)
57%
Urawa (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonbuk Motors at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

Urawa away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonbuk Motors attack 2.18 + Urawa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Urawa attack 1.75 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jeonbuk Motors scores more
43%
level
24%
Urawa scores more
32%

Jeonbuk Motors at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeonbuk Motors vs Urawa

Jeonbuk Motors and Urawa drew 1-1 in AFC Champions League on August 25, 2022.

The match was played at Saitama Stadium 2002 in Saitama.