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Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC — K League 1 2026

Jeonbuk Motors
Jeonbuk Motors
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Gwangju FC
Gwangju FC
11/25/2023K League 1K League 1 · Championship Round - 4Jeonju World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Jeonbuk Motors51%
×Draw25%
Gwangju FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeonbuk Motors
1.58
Gwangju FC
0.98

Jeonbuk Motors creates 61% more chances

Season form · 158 home / 97 away

creates per match

Jeonbuk Motors
1.70
Gwangju FC
0.98

allows per match

Jeonbuk Motors
0.98
Gwangju FC
1.47

finishing

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par
Gwangju FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonbuk Motors ↓

Gwangju FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Jeonbuk Motors or draw
77%
Jeonbuk Motors or Gwangju FC
75%
Draw or Gwangju FC
49%

Winning margin

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+
27%
Gwangju FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals
79%
Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals
47%
Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals
21%
Gwangju FC 1+ goals
62%
Gwangju FC 2+ goals
26%
Gwangju FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)
69%
Gwangju FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonbuk Motors at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.98 · 158 matches

Gwangju FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.47 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.70 + Gwangju FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.58

Gwangju FC attack 0.98 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jeonbuk Motors scores more
51%
level
25%
Gwangju FC scores more
23%

Jeonbuk Motors at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 1: Jeonbuk Motors 2–0 Gwangju FC

Jeonbuk Motors beat Gwangju FC 2-0 in K League 1 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium in Jeonju.