Gwangju FC 1–1 Jeonbuk Motors: Result & Stats

Gwangju FC

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Jeonbuk Motors

12/6/2025

FA Cup · FinalSeoul World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gwangju FC38%

×Draw25%

Jeonbuk Motors37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gwangju FCExpected goals in this matchJeonbuk Motors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.43

Gwangju FC

1.46

Jeonbuk Motors

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.43

creates per match

2.00

0.86

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Gwangju FC

1.43

Jeonbuk Motors

2.00

allows per match

Gwangju FC

0.86

Jeonbuk Motors

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gwangju FC+0.00on par

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwangju FC ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Gwangju FC or draw

63%

Gwangju FC or Jeonbuk Motors

75%

Draw or Jeonbuk Motors

62%

Winning margin

Gwangju FC wins by 2+

18%

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Gwangju FC 1+ goals

77%

Gwangju FC 2+ goals

43%

Gwangju FC 3+ goals

18%

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals

76%

Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals

42%

Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Gwangju FC (draw refunded)

51%

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwangju FC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwangju FC attack 1.43 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Jeonbuk Motors attack 2.00 + Gwangju FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gwangju FC scores more

38%

level

25%

Jeonbuk Motors scores more

37%

Gwangju FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gwangju FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff