Jeonbuk Motors vs Daejeon Citizen

Jeonbuk Motors

Preview

10:30

Daejeon Citizen

7/21/2026

K League 1 · Round 19Jeonju World Cup Stadium

Big match

45%

Jeonbuk Motors

model favours

45%25%30%

32% of Jeonbuk Motors’s goals come after the 75th minute

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

over 2.5 goals

57%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Jeonbuk Motors45%

×Draw25%

Daejeon Citizen30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeonbuk MotorsExpected goals in this matchDaejeon Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.26

Jeonbuk Motors

1.58

Daejeon Citizen

1.26

Jeonbuk Motors creates 25% more chances

Season form · 141 home / 67 away

1.69

creates per match

1.52

1.00

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Jeonbuk Motors

1.69

Daejeon Citizen

1.52

allows per match

Jeonbuk Motors

1.00

Daejeon Citizen

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Daejeon Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonbuk Motors ↓

Daejeon Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Jeonbuk Motors or draw

70%

Jeonbuk Motors or Daejeon Citizen

75%

Draw or Daejeon Citizen

55%

Winning margin

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+

23%

Daejeon Citizen wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals

79%

Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals

47%

Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals

21%

Daejeon Citizen 1+ goals

72%

Daejeon Citizen 2+ goals

36%

Daejeon Citizen 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)

59%

Daejeon Citizen (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonbuk Motors at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.00 · 141 matches

Daejeon Citizen away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.48 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.69 + Daejeon Citizen defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.58

Daejeon Citizen attack 1.52 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jeonbuk Motors scores more

45%

level

25%

Daejeon Citizen scores more

30%

Jeonbuk Motors at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Jeonbuk Motors fall short of their xG (1.5 vs 2.7 expected)
Daejeon Citizen outscore their xG (1.8 vs 0.8 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Jeonbuk Motors

Possession-dominant

Daejeon Citizen

Balanced

56%Possession48%

84%Pass accuracy78%

13.5Shots14.0

2.72xGBiggest gap0.75

Jeonbuk MotorsDaejeon Citizen

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5

Jeonbuk Motors

4

Draws

1

Daejeon Citizen

Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 50%

1–03–11–03–21–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Motors

LWLWD

Citizen

DDDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff