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Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors — FA Cup 2019

Daejeon Citizen
Daejeon Citizen
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Jeonbuk Motors
Jeonbuk Motorsadvanced
5/14/2025FA CupFA Cup · Round of 16Daejeon World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Daejeon Citizen46%
×Draw22%
Jeonbuk Motors32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daejeon Citizen
1.95
Jeonbuk Motors
1.60

Daejeon Citizen creates 22% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Daejeon Citizen
2.40
Jeonbuk Motors
2.00

allows per match

Daejeon Citizen
1.20
Jeonbuk Motors
1.50

finishing

Daejeon Citizen+0.00on par
Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daejeon Citizen ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Daejeon Citizen or draw
68%
Daejeon Citizen or Jeonbuk Motors
78%
Draw or Jeonbuk Motors
54%

Winning margin

Daejeon Citizen wins by 2+
26%
Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Daejeon Citizen 1+ goals
86%
Daejeon Citizen 2+ goals
58%
Daejeon Citizen 3+ goals
31%
Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals
80%
Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals
47%
Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Daejeon Citizen (draw refunded)
59%
Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daejeon Citizen at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daejeon Citizen attack 2.40 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.95

Jeonbuk Motors attack 2.00 + Daejeon Citizen defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Daejeon Citizen scores more
46%
level
22%
Jeonbuk Motors scores more
32%

Daejeon Citizen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Daejeon Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors

Jeonbuk Motors beat Daejeon Citizen 3-2 in FA Cup on May 14, 2025.

The match was played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium in Daejeon.