Jeonbuk Motors 1–1 BG Pathum United: Result & Stats

Jeonbuk Motors

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

BG Pathum United

9/15/2021

AFC Champions League · Round of 16Jeonju World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Jeonbuk Motors57%

×Draw21%

BG Pathum United22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeonbuk MotorsExpected goals in this matchBG Pathum United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.20

Jeonbuk Motors

2.04

BG Pathum United

1.20

Jeonbuk Motors creates 70% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

2.18

creates per match

1.45

0.95

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Jeonbuk Motors

2.18

BG Pathum United

1.45

allows per match

Jeonbuk Motors

0.95

BG Pathum United

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

BG Pathum United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonbuk Motors ↓

BG Pathum United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Jeonbuk Motors or draw

78%

Jeonbuk Motors or BG Pathum United

79%

Draw or BG Pathum United

43%

Winning margin

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+

34%

BG Pathum United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals

87%

Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals

60%

Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals

33%

BG Pathum United 1+ goals

70%

BG Pathum United 2+ goals

34%

BG Pathum United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)

72%

BG Pathum United (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonbuk Motors at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.95 · 22 matches

BG Pathum United away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonbuk Motors attack 2.18 + BG Pathum United defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.04

BG Pathum United attack 1.45 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Jeonbuk Motors scores more

57%

level

21%

BG Pathum United scores more

22%

Jeonbuk Motors at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff