Jendouba Sport 2–0 Sporting Ben Arous

Jendouba Sport

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Ben Arous

5/5/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 21Stade Municipal Salih Al Mirdasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Jendouba Sport57%

×Draw28%

Sporting Ben Arous15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jendouba SportExpected goals in this matchSporting Ben Arous

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.56

Jendouba Sport

1.38

Sporting Ben Arous

0.56

Jendouba Sport creates 146% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 46 away

1.50

creates per match

0.54

0.58

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Jendouba Sport

1.50

Sporting Ben Arous

0.54

allows per match

Jendouba Sport

0.58

Sporting Ben Arous

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jendouba Sport+0.00on par

Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jendouba Sport ↓

Sporting Ben Arous →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Jendouba Sport or draw

85%

Jendouba Sport or Sporting Ben Arous

72%

Draw or Sporting Ben Arous

43%

Winning margin

Jendouba Sport wins by 2+

29%

Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Jendouba Sport 1+ goals

75%

Jendouba Sport 2+ goals

40%

Jendouba Sport 3+ goals

16%

Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals

43%

Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals

11%

Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)

79%

Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jendouba Sport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.58 · 60 matches

Sporting Ben Arous away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jendouba Sport attack 1.50 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sporting Ben Arous attack 0.54 + Jendouba Sport defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Jendouba Sport scores more

57%

level

28%

Sporting Ben Arous scores more

15%

Jendouba Sport at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Jendouba Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff