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Jendouba Sport vs Sfax Railways — Cup 2019

Jendouba Sport
Jendouba Sportadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sfax Railways
Sfax Railways
3/22/2026CupCup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jendouba Sport48%
×Draw30%
Sfax Railways22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jendouba Sport
1.24
Sfax Railways
0.74

Jendouba Sport creates 68% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Jendouba Sport
0.67
Sfax Railways
0.80

allows per match

Jendouba Sport
0.67
Sfax Railways
1.80

finishing

Jendouba Sport+0.00on par
Sfax Railways+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jendouba Sport ↓

Sfax Railways →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Jendouba Sport or draw
78%
Jendouba Sport or Sfax Railways
70%
Draw or Sfax Railways
52%

Winning margin

Jendouba Sport wins by 2+
22%
Sfax Railways wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jendouba Sport 1+ goals
71%
Jendouba Sport 2+ goals
35%
Jendouba Sport 3+ goals
13%
Sfax Railways 1+ goals
52%
Sfax Railways 2+ goals
17%
Sfax Railways 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)
68%
Sfax Railways (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jendouba Sport at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Sfax Railways away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jendouba Sport attack 0.67 + Sfax Railways defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.24

Sfax Railways attack 0.80 + Jendouba Sport defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jendouba Sport scores more
48%
level
30%
Sfax Railways scores more
22%

Jendouba Sport at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jendouba Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Jendouba Sport 2–0 Sfax Railways

Jendouba Sport beat Sfax Railways 2-0 in Cup on March 22, 2026.