Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jendouba Sport vs Menzel Nour — Ligue 2 2020

Jendouba Sport
Jendouba Sport
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Menzel Nour
Menzel Nour
M. B. Maaroufi 48' (pen)
2/13/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 6Stade de Jendouba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Jendouba Sport67%
×Draw22%
Menzel Nour10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jendouba Sport
1.75
Menzel Nour
0.52

Jendouba Sport creates 237% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 11 away

creates per match

Jendouba Sport
1.50
Menzel Nour
0.45

allows per match

Jendouba Sport
0.58
Menzel Nour
2.00

finishing

Jendouba Sport+0.00on par
Menzel Nour+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jendouba Sport ↓

Menzel Nour →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Jendouba Sport or draw
90%
Jendouba Sport or Menzel Nour
78%
Draw or Menzel Nour
33%

Winning margin

Jendouba Sport wins by 2+
40%
Menzel Nour wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Jendouba Sport 1+ goals
83%
Jendouba Sport 2+ goals
52%
Jendouba Sport 3+ goals
25%
Menzel Nour 1+ goals
41%
Menzel Nour 2+ goals
10%
Menzel Nour 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)
87%
Menzel Nour (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jendouba Sport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.58 · 60 matches

Menzel Nour away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jendouba Sport attack 1.50 + Menzel Nour defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Menzel Nour attack 0.45 + Jendouba Sport defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Jendouba Sport scores more
67%
level
22%
Menzel Nour scores more
10%

Jendouba Sport at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Jendouba Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
M. B. MaaroufiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jendouba Sport 1 – 0 Menzel Nour

Jendouba Sport beat Menzel Nour 1-0 in Ligue 2 on February 13, 2022.

Goals: M. B. Maaroufi (48' pen).

The match was played at Stade de Jendouba in Jendouba.