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Jendouba Sport vs CO Medenine — Ligue 2 2020

Jendouba Sport
Jendouba Sport
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CO Medenine
CO Medenine
11/19/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 5Jendouba Artificiel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Jendouba Sport57%
×Draw27%
CO Medenine16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jendouba Sport
1.44
CO Medenine
0.63

Jendouba Sport creates 129% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 36 away

creates per match

Jendouba Sport
1.50
CO Medenine
0.67

allows per match

Jendouba Sport
0.58
CO Medenine
1.39

finishing

Jendouba Sport+0.00on par
CO Medenine+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jendouba Sport ↓

CO Medenine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jendouba Sport or draw
84%
Jendouba Sport or CO Medenine
73%
Draw or CO Medenine
43%

Winning margin

Jendouba Sport wins by 2+
29%
CO Medenine wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jendouba Sport 1+ goals
76%
Jendouba Sport 2+ goals
42%
Jendouba Sport 3+ goals
18%
CO Medenine 1+ goals
47%
CO Medenine 2+ goals
13%
CO Medenine 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)
78%
CO Medenine (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jendouba Sport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.58 · 60 matches

CO Medenine away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jendouba Sport attack 1.50 + CO Medenine defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.44

CO Medenine attack 0.67 + Jendouba Sport defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Jendouba Sport scores more
57%
level
27%
CO Medenine scores more
16%

Jendouba Sport at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Jendouba Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Jendouba Sport 1–0 CO Medenine

Jendouba Sport beat CO Medenine 1-0 in Ligue 2 on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Jendouba Artificiel in Jendouba.