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Jelgava vs Tukums — Virsliga 2019

Jelgava
Jelgava
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tukums
Tukums
7/26/2020VirsligaVirsliga · Round 10Zemgales Olimpiskā centra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Jelgava44%
×Draw24%
Tukums33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jelgava
1.67
Tukums
1.41

Jelgava creates 18% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 96 away

creates per match

Jelgava
0.97
Tukums
1.05

allows per match

Jelgava
1.77
Tukums
2.38

finishing

Jelgava+0.00on par
Tukums+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jelgava ↓

Tukums →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Jelgava or draw
67%
Jelgava or Tukums
76%
Draw or Tukums
56%

Winning margin

Jelgava wins by 2+
23%
Tukums wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jelgava 1+ goals
81%
Jelgava 2+ goals
50%
Jelgava 3+ goals
23%
Tukums 1+ goals
76%
Tukums 2+ goals
41%
Tukums 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Jelgava (draw refunded)
57%
Tukums (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jelgava at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

Tukums away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.38 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jelgava attack 0.97 + Tukums defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.67

Tukums attack 1.05 + Jelgava defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jelgava scores more
44%
level
24%
Tukums scores more
33%

Jelgava at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jelgava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jelgava vs Tukums

Jelgava beat Tukums 2-1 in Virsliga on July 26, 2020.

The match was played at Zemgales Olimpiskā centra in Jelgava.