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Jelgava vs Spartaks Jurmala — Virsliga 2019

Jelgava
Jelgava
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Spartaks Jurmala
Spartaks Jurmala
8/29/2020VirsligaVirsliga · Round 17Zemgales Olimpiskā centra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Jelgava38%
×Draw24%
Spartaks Jurmala38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jelgava
1.52
Spartaks Jurmala
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 52 away

creates per match

Jelgava
0.97
Spartaks Jurmala
1.29

allows per match

Jelgava
1.77
Spartaks Jurmala
2.06

finishing

Jelgava+0.00on par
Spartaks Jurmala+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jelgava ↓

Spartaks Jurmala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Jelgava or draw
62%
Jelgava or Spartaks Jurmala
76%
Draw or Spartaks Jurmala
62%

Winning margin

Jelgava wins by 2+
18%
Spartaks Jurmala wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Jelgava 1+ goals
78%
Jelgava 2+ goals
45%
Jelgava 3+ goals
20%
Spartaks Jurmala 1+ goals
78%
Spartaks Jurmala 2+ goals
45%
Spartaks Jurmala 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Jelgava (draw refunded)
50%
Spartaks Jurmala (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jelgava at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

Spartaks Jurmala away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.06 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jelgava attack 0.97 + Spartaks Jurmala defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.52

Spartaks Jurmala attack 1.29 + Jelgava defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jelgava scores more
38%
level
24%
Spartaks Jurmala scores more
38%

Jelgava at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jelgava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Virsliga: Jelgava 2–3 Spartaks Jurmala

Spartaks Jurmala beat Jelgava 3-2 in Virsliga on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Zemgales Olimpiskā centra in Jelgava.