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Jelgava vs Riga — Virsliga 2019

Jelgava
Jelgava
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Riga
Riga
10/17/2020VirsligaVirsliga · Round 22Zemgales Olimpiskā centra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Jelgava15%
×Draw21%
Riga64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jelgava
0.86
Riga
2.02

Riga creates 135% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 116 away

creates per match

Jelgava
0.97
Riga
2.27

allows per match

Jelgava
1.77
Riga
0.75

finishing

Jelgava+0.00on par
Riga+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jelgava ↓

Riga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Jelgava or draw
36%
Jelgava or Riga
79%
Draw or Riga
85%

Winning margin

Jelgava wins by 2+
5%
Riga wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Jelgava 1+ goals
58%
Jelgava 2+ goals
21%
Jelgava 3+ goals
6%
Riga 1+ goals
87%
Riga 2+ goals
60%
Riga 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Jelgava (draw refunded)
19%
Riga (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jelgava at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

Riga away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.75 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jelgava attack 0.97 + Riga defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.86

Riga attack 2.27 + Jelgava defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Jelgava scores more
15%
level
21%
Riga scores more
64%

Riga at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Riga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Virsliga: Jelgava 0–2 Riga

Riga beat Jelgava 2-0 in Virsliga on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Zemgales Olimpiskā centra in Jelgava.