Jēkabpils 3–1 Ogre United: Result & Stats | Cup

Jēkabpils

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ogre United

A. Lingis 81', 79', 16'

M. Terakoshi 90+1'

6/23/2023

Cup · Play-off RoundJēkabpils SC stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jēkabpils40%

×Draw20%

Ogre United41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JēkabpilsExpected goals in this matchOgre United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

2.23

Jēkabpils

2.20

Ogre United

2.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.40

creates per match

1.67

2.80

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Jēkabpils

1.40

Ogre United

1.67

allows per match

Jēkabpils

2.80

Ogre United

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jēkabpils+0.00on par

Ogre United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jēkabpils ↓

Ogre United →

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Jēkabpils or draw

59%

Jēkabpils or Ogre United

80%

Draw or Ogre United

60%

Winning margin

Jēkabpils wins by 2+

22%

Ogre United wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Jēkabpils 1+ goals

89%

Jēkabpils 2+ goals

64%

Jēkabpils 3+ goals

37%

Ogre United 1+ goals

89%

Ogre United 2+ goals

65%

Ogre United 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Jēkabpils (draw refunded)

49%

Ogre United (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jēkabpils at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Ogre United away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jēkabpils attack 1.40 + Ogre United defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.20

Ogre United attack 1.67 + Jēkabpils defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jēkabpils scores more

40%

level

20%

Ogre United scores more

41%

Ogre United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ogre United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

A. Lingis

79'

A. Lingis

81'

A. Lingis

90+1'

M. Terakoshi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff