Jēkabpils 4–2 Ķekava / Auda: Result & Stats | Cup

Jēkabpils

4 – 2

Ķekava / Auda

5/21/2022

Cup · 1st RoundJēkabpils SC stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Jēkabpils30%

×Draw19%

Ķekava / Auda50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JēkabpilsExpected goals in this matchĶekava / Auda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

2.52

Jēkabpils

1.95

Ķekava / Auda

2.52

Ķekava / Auda creates 29% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.40

creates per match

2.25

2.80

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Jēkabpils

1.40

Ķekava / Auda

2.25

allows per match

Jēkabpils

2.80

Ķekava / Auda

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jēkabpils+0.00on par

Ķekava / Auda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jēkabpils ↓

Ķekava / Auda →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Jēkabpils or draw

50%

Jēkabpils or Ķekava / Auda

81%

Draw or Ķekava / Auda

70%

Winning margin

Jēkabpils wins by 2+

16%

Ķekava / Auda wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Jēkabpils 1+ goals

86%

Jēkabpils 2+ goals

58%

Jēkabpils 3+ goals

31%

Ķekava / Auda 1+ goals

92%

Ķekava / Auda 2+ goals

71%

Ķekava / Auda 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Jēkabpils (draw refunded)

38%

Ķekava / Auda (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jēkabpils at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Ķekava / Auda away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jēkabpils attack 1.40 + Ķekava / Auda defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.95

Ķekava / Auda attack 2.25 + Jēkabpils defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jēkabpils scores more

30%

level

19%

Ķekava / Auda scores more

50%

Ķekava / Auda at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ķekava / Auda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff