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Jēkabpils vs Dinamo Rīga — Cup 2020

Jēkabpils
Jēkabpils
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Rīga
Dinamo Rīga
S. Petriks 58'
A. Mitkovecs 120+2' (pen)
A. Milantejs 6'
6/11/2022CupCup · 2nd RoundJēkabpils SC stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Jēkabpils23%
×Draw21%
Dinamo Rīga56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jēkabpils
1.32
Dinamo Rīga
2.15

Dinamo Rīga creates 63% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Jēkabpils
1.40
Dinamo Rīga
1.50

allows per match

Jēkabpils
2.80
Dinamo Rīga
1.25

finishing

Jēkabpils+0.00on par
Dinamo Rīga+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jēkabpils ↓

Dinamo Rīga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Jēkabpils or draw
44%
Jēkabpils or Dinamo Rīga
79%
Draw or Dinamo Rīga
77%

Winning margin

Jēkabpils wins by 2+
10%
Dinamo Rīga wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Jēkabpils 1+ goals
73%
Jēkabpils 2+ goals
38%
Jēkabpils 3+ goals
15%
Dinamo Rīga 1+ goals
88%
Dinamo Rīga 2+ goals
63%
Dinamo Rīga 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Jēkabpils (draw refunded)
29%
Dinamo Rīga (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jēkabpils at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Dinamo Rīga away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jēkabpils attack 1.40 + Dinamo Rīga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Dinamo Rīga attack 1.50 + Jēkabpils defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Jēkabpils scores more
23%
level
21%
Dinamo Rīga scores more
56%

Dinamo Rīga at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dinamo Rīga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
A. Milantejs
57'
M. Muzafarovs
57'
M. Muzafarovs
58'
S. Petriks
90+3'
V. Urigajevs
120+2'
A. MitkovecsPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jēkabpils vs Dinamo Rīga

Jēkabpils and Dinamo Rīga drew 1-1 in Cup on June 11, 2022.

Goals: A. Milantejs (6'), S. Petriks (58'), A. Mitkovecs (120+2' pen).

The match was played at Jēkabpils SC stadions in Jēkabpils.