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Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul — K League 1 2026

Jeju United FC
Jeju United FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
FC Seoul
FC Seoul
3/15/2026K League 1K League 1 · Round 3Jeju World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 140+ matches

Jeju United FC36%
×Draw27%
FC Seoul37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeju United FC
1.23
FC Seoul
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 140 home / 156 away

creates per match

Jeju United FC
1.16
FC Seoul
1.20

allows per match

Jeju United FC
1.29
FC Seoul
1.29

finishing

Jeju United FC+0.00on par
FC Seoul+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeju United FC ↓

FC Seoul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Jeju United FC or draw
63%
Jeju United FC or FC Seoul
73%
Draw or FC Seoul
64%

Winning margin

Jeju United FC wins by 2+
15%
FC Seoul wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Jeju United FC 1+ goals
71%
Jeju United FC 2+ goals
35%
Jeju United FC 3+ goals
13%
FC Seoul 1+ goals
71%
FC Seoul 2+ goals
36%
FC Seoul 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Jeju United FC (draw refunded)
49%
FC Seoul (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeju United FC at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.29 · 140 matches

FC Seoul away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.29 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeju United FC attack 1.16 + FC Seoul defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

FC Seoul attack 1.20 + Jeju United FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Jeju United FC scores more
36%
level
27%
FC Seoul scores more
37%

FC Seoul at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FC Seoul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 1: Jeju United FC 1–2 FC Seoul

FC Seoul beat Jeju United FC 2-1 in K League 1 on March 15, 2026.

The match was played at Jeju World Cup Stadium in Seogwipo.