Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen — K League 1 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 27+ matches
Jeju United FC29%
Daejeon Citizen45%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Daejeon Citizen creates 29% more chances
Season form · 28 home / 27 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Jeju United FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Jeju United FC at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.21 · 28 matches
Daejeon Citizen away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Jeju United FC attack 1.07 + Daejeon Citizen defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13
Daejeon Citizen attack 1.70 + Jeju United FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.46
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Daejeon Citizen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Daejeon Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Jeonbuk Motors
Gimcheon Sangmu FCDaejeon Citizen
Pohang Steelers
FC Seoul
Gangwon FC
FC Anyang
Gwangju FC
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Suwon City FCJeju United FC
Daegu FCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Jeju United FC host Daejeon Citizen on Saturday, 15 March 2025 at 05:00. The match is part of the K League 1 2025/2026 season.
Match Recap: Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen
Daejeon Citizen beat Jeju United FC 3-1 in K League 1 on March 15, 2025.
Goals: Joo Min-Kyu (51'), Seo Jin-Su (56' pen), Jeong Jae-Hee (90'), Lee Jun-Gyu (90').
The match was played at Jeju World Cup Stadium in Seogwipo.