Jeju United FC 3–1 Daejeon Citizen: Result & Stats

Jeju United FC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Daejeon Citizen

3/10/2024

K League 1 · Round 2Jeju World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Jeju United FC35%

×Draw26%

Daejeon Citizen39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeju United FCExpected goals in this matchDaejeon Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.41

Jeju United FC

1.32

Daejeon Citizen

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 140 home / 67 away

1.16

creates per match

1.52

1.29

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Jeju United FC

1.16

Daejeon Citizen

1.52

allows per match

Jeju United FC

1.29

Daejeon Citizen

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeju United FC+0.00on par

Daejeon Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeju United FC ↓

Daejeon Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Jeju United FC or draw

61%

Jeju United FC or Daejeon Citizen

74%

Draw or Daejeon Citizen

65%

Winning margin

Jeju United FC wins by 2+

16%

Daejeon Citizen wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Jeju United FC 1+ goals

73%

Jeju United FC 2+ goals

38%

Jeju United FC 3+ goals

15%

Daejeon Citizen 1+ goals

76%

Daejeon Citizen 2+ goals

41%

Daejeon Citizen 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Jeju United FC (draw refunded)

47%

Daejeon Citizen (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeju United FC at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.29 · 140 matches

Daejeon Citizen away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.48 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeju United FC attack 1.16 + Daejeon Citizen defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.32

Daejeon Citizen attack 1.52 + Jeju United FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jeju United FC scores more

35%

level

26%

Daejeon Citizen scores more

39%

Daejeon Citizen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Daejeon Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff