JEF United Chiba 4–1 Renofa Yamaguchi

JEF United Chiba

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Renofa Yamaguchi

9/21/2024

J2 League · Round 32Fukuda Denshi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 167+ matches

JEF United Chiba46%

×Draw26%

Renofa Yamaguchi28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JEF United ChibaExpected goals in this matchRenofa Yamaguchi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.11

JEF United Chiba

1.49

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.11

JEF United Chiba creates 34% more chances

Season form · 167 home / 168 away

1.48

creates per match

0.98

1.25

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

JEF United Chiba

1.48

Renofa Yamaguchi

0.98

allows per match

JEF United Chiba

1.25

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JEF United Chiba+0.00on par

Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JEF United Chiba ↓

Renofa Yamaguchi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

JEF United Chiba or draw

72%

JEF United Chiba or Renofa Yamaguchi

74%

Draw or Renofa Yamaguchi

54%

Winning margin

JEF United Chiba wins by 2+

23%

Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

JEF United Chiba 1+ goals

77%

JEF United Chiba 2+ goals

44%

JEF United Chiba 3+ goals

19%

Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals

67%

Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals

30%

Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

JEF United Chiba (draw refunded)

62%

Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JEF United Chiba at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 167 matches

Renofa Yamaguchi away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.50 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JEF United Chiba attack 1.48 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.49

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 0.98 + JEF United Chiba defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

JEF United Chiba scores more

46%

level

26%

Renofa Yamaguchi scores more

28%

JEF United Chiba at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "JEF United Chiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff