Jednota Bánová 6–0 Vrakuňa: Result & Stats

Jednota Bánová

FT

6 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Vrakuňa

10/2/2022

3. liga - West · West - 9Futbalový štadión Strážov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jednota Bánová76%

×Draw14%

Vrakuňa10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jednota BánováExpected goals in this matchVrakuňa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.88

0.98

Jednota Bánová

2.88

Vrakuňa

0.98

Jednota Bánová creates 194% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

1.42

creates per match

0.73

1.24

allows per match

4.33

creates per match

Jednota Bánová

1.42

Vrakuňa

0.73

allows per match

Jednota Bánová

1.24

Vrakuňa

4.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jednota Bánová+0.00on par

Vrakuňa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jednota Bánová ↓

Vrakuňa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Jednota Bánová or draw

90%

Jednota Bánová or Vrakuňa

86%

Draw or Vrakuňa

24%

Winning margin

Jednota Bánová wins by 2+

55%

Vrakuňa wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Jednota Bánová 1+ goals

94%

Jednota Bánová 2+ goals

78%

Jednota Bánová 3+ goals

54%

Vrakuňa 1+ goals

62%

Vrakuňa 2+ goals

26%

Vrakuňa 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Jednota Bánová (draw refunded)

88%

Vrakuňa (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jednota Bánová at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

Vrakuňa away — creates 0.73, concedes 4.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jednota Bánová attack 1.42 + Vrakuňa defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 2.88

Vrakuňa attack 0.73 + Jednota Bánová defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Jednota Bánová scores more

76%

level

14%

Vrakuňa scores more

10%

Jednota Bánová at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Jednota Bánová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff