Jednota Bánová 2–1 Veľké Ludince: Result & Stats

Jednota Bánová

FT

2 – 1

Veľké Ludince

4/2/2023

3. liga - West · West - 20Futbalové ihrisko Bánová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jednota Bánová52%

×Draw24%

Veľké Ludince24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jednota BánováExpected goals in this matchVeľké Ludince

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.12

Jednota Bánová

1.74

Veľké Ludince

1.12

Jednota Bánová creates 55% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 84 away

1.42

creates per match

1.00

1.24

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Jednota Bánová

1.42

Veľké Ludince

1.00

allows per match

Jednota Bánová

1.24

Veľké Ludince

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jednota Bánová+0.00on par

Veľké Ludince+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jednota Bánová ↓

Veľké Ludince →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Jednota Bánová or draw

76%

Jednota Bánová or Veľké Ludince

76%

Draw or Veľké Ludince

48%

Winning margin

Jednota Bánová wins by 2+

28%

Veľké Ludince wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Jednota Bánová 1+ goals

82%

Jednota Bánová 2+ goals

52%

Jednota Bánová 3+ goals

25%

Veľké Ludince 1+ goals

67%

Veľké Ludince 2+ goals

31%

Veľké Ludince 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Jednota Bánová (draw refunded)

68%

Veľké Ludince (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jednota Bánová at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

Veľké Ludince away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.07 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jednota Bánová attack 1.42 + Veľké Ludince defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.74

Veľké Ludince attack 1.00 + Jednota Bánová defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Jednota Bánová scores more

52%

level

24%

Veľké Ludince scores more

24%

Jednota Bánová at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Jednota Bánová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff