Jednota Bánová 5–0 Lokomotíva Zvolen

Jednota Bánová

FT

5 – 0

Lokomotíva Zvolen

8/2/2020

3. liga - Center · Center - 1Futbalové ihrisko Bánová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Jednota Bánová69%

×Draw18%

Lokomotíva Zvolen13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jednota BánováExpected goals in this matchLokomotíva Zvolen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

0.90

Jednota Bánová

2.32

Lokomotíva Zvolen

0.90

Jednota Bánová creates 158% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 8 away

1.64

creates per match

0.88

0.92

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Jednota Bánová

1.64

Lokomotíva Zvolen

0.88

allows per match

Jednota Bánová

0.92

Lokomotíva Zvolen

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jednota Bánová+0.00on par

Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jednota Bánová ↓

Lokomotíva Zvolen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Jednota Bánová or draw

87%

Jednota Bánová or Lokomotíva Zvolen

82%

Draw or Lokomotíva Zvolen

31%

Winning margin

Jednota Bánová wins by 2+

46%

Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Jednota Bánová 1+ goals

90%

Jednota Bánová 2+ goals

67%

Jednota Bánová 3+ goals

40%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals

59%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals

23%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Jednota Bánová (draw refunded)

84%

Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jednota Bánová at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.92 · 36 matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jednota Bánová attack 1.64 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.32

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 0.88 + Jednota Bánová defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Jednota Bánová scores more

69%

level

18%

Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more

13%

Jednota Bánová at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Jednota Bánová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff