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Jednota Bánová vs Kováčová — 3. liga - Center 2020

Jednota Bánová
Jednota Bánová
CANC
08:30
Kováčová
Kováčová
4/4/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 17Futbalové ihrisko Bánová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Jednota Bánová50%
×Draw25%
Kováčová25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jednota Bánová
1.56
Kováčová
1.02

Jednota Bánová creates 53% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 23 away

creates per match

Jednota Bánová
1.64
Kováčová
1.13

allows per match

Jednota Bánová
0.92
Kováčová
1.48

finishing

Jednota Bánová+0.00on par
Kováčová+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jednota Bánová ↓

Kováčová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Jednota Bánová or draw
75%
Jednota Bánová or Kováčová
75%
Draw or Kováčová
50%

Winning margin

Jednota Bánová wins by 2+
26%
Kováčová wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jednota Bánová 1+ goals
79%
Jednota Bánová 2+ goals
46%
Jednota Bánová 3+ goals
21%
Kováčová 1+ goals
64%
Kováčová 2+ goals
27%
Kováčová 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Jednota Bánová (draw refunded)
67%
Kováčová (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jednota Bánová at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.92 · 36 matches

Kováčová away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jednota Bánová attack 1.64 + Kováčová defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.56

Kováčová attack 1.13 + Jednota Bánová defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jednota Bánová scores more
50%
level
25%
Kováčová scores more
25%

Jednota Bánová at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jednota Bánová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Jednota Bánová host Kováčová

April 4, 2021: Jednota Bánová take on Kováčová in 3. liga - Center. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Jednota Bánová host Kováčová at Futbalové ihrisko Bánová.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.