Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jednota Bánová vs Hamsik Academy — 3. liga - West 2020

Jednota Bánová
Jednota Bánová
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Hamsik Academy
Hamsik Academy
8/10/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 2Štadión TJ Jednota Bánová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jednota Bánová39%
×Draw25%
Hamsik Academy35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jednota Bánová
1.42
Hamsik Academy
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Jednota Bánová
1.42
Hamsik Academy
1.44

allows per match

Jednota Bánová
1.24
Hamsik Academy
1.42

finishing

Jednota Bánová+0.00on par
Hamsik Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jednota Bánová ↓

Hamsik Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Jednota Bánová or draw
65%
Jednota Bánová or Hamsik Academy
75%
Draw or Hamsik Academy
61%

Winning margin

Jednota Bánová wins by 2+
18%
Hamsik Academy wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Jednota Bánová 1+ goals
76%
Jednota Bánová 2+ goals
41%
Jednota Bánová 3+ goals
17%
Hamsik Academy 1+ goals
74%
Hamsik Academy 2+ goals
39%
Hamsik Academy 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Jednota Bánová (draw refunded)
52%
Hamsik Academy (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jednota Bánová at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

Hamsik Academy away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jednota Bánová attack 1.42 + Hamsik Academy defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Hamsik Academy attack 1.44 + Jednota Bánová defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jednota Bánová scores more
39%
level
25%
Hamsik Academy scores more
35%

Jednota Bánová at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jednota Bánová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Jednota Bánová 1–2 Hamsik Academy

Hamsik Academy beat Jednota Bánová 2-1 in 3. liga - West on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión TJ Jednota Bánová in Žilina.