Jednota Bánová 1–3 Častkovce: Result & Stats

Jednota Bánová

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Častkovce

11/11/2023

3. liga - West · West - 15Futbalové ihrisko Bánová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Jednota Bánová43%

×Draw25%

Častkovce32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jednota BánováExpected goals in this matchČastkovce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.28

Jednota Bánová

1.54

Častkovce

1.28

Jednota Bánová creates 20% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 85 away

1.42

creates per match

1.32

1.24

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Jednota Bánová

1.42

Častkovce

1.32

allows per match

Jednota Bánová

1.24

Častkovce

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jednota Bánová+0.00on par

Častkovce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jednota Bánová ↓

Častkovce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Jednota Bánová or draw

68%

Jednota Bánová or Častkovce

75%

Draw or Častkovce

57%

Winning margin

Jednota Bánová wins by 2+

22%

Častkovce wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Jednota Bánová 1+ goals

79%

Jednota Bánová 2+ goals

45%

Jednota Bánová 3+ goals

20%

Častkovce 1+ goals

72%

Častkovce 2+ goals

37%

Častkovce 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Jednota Bánová (draw refunded)

58%

Častkovce (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jednota Bánová at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

Častkovce away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.66 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jednota Bánová attack 1.42 + Častkovce defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.54

Častkovce attack 1.32 + Jednota Bánová defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jednota Bánová scores more

43%

level

25%

Častkovce scores more

32%

Jednota Bánová at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jednota Bánová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Jednota Bánová 1–3 Častkovce

Častkovce beat Jednota Bánová 3-1 in 3. liga - West on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalové ihrisko Bánová in Žilina.

Jednota Bánová vs Častkovce — 3. liga - West 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

3. liga - West: Jednota Bánová 1–3 Častkovce