Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jedinstvo vs Drezga — Second League 2019

Jedinstvo
Jedinstvo
FT
1 – 0
Drezga
Drezga
11/4/2020Second LeagueSecond League · Round 14Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Jedinstvo60%
×Draw24%
Drezga17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo
1.69
Drezga
0.76

Jedinstvo creates 122% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 33 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo
1.51
Drezga
0.82

allows per match

Jedinstvo
0.71
Drezga
1.88

finishing

Jedinstvo+0.00on par
Drezga+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo ↓

Drezga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jedinstvo or draw
83%
Jedinstvo or Drezga
76%
Draw or Drezga
40%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo wins by 2+
33%
Drezga wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jedinstvo 1+ goals
82%
Jedinstvo 2+ goals
50%
Jedinstvo 3+ goals
24%
Drezga 1+ goals
53%
Drezga 2+ goals
18%
Drezga 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo (draw refunded)
78%
Drezga (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.71 · 51 matches

Drezga away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.88 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo attack 1.51 + Drezga defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.69

Drezga attack 0.82 + Jedinstvo defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Jedinstvo scores more
60%
level
24%
Drezga scores more
17%

Jedinstvo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Jedinstvo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jedinstvo vs Drezga

Jedinstvo beat Drezga 1-0 in Second League on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Bijelo Polje.