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Jedinstvo vs Arsenal Tivat — First League 2019

Jedinstvo
Jedinstvo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
4/6/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 28Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Jedinstvo41%
×Draw28%
Arsenal Tivat31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo
1.27
Arsenal Tivat
1.06

Jedinstvo creates 20% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 74 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo
1.07
Arsenal Tivat
0.99

allows per match

Jedinstvo
1.14
Arsenal Tivat
1.47

finishing

Jedinstvo+0.00on par
Arsenal Tivat+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo ↓

Arsenal Tivat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Jedinstvo or draw
69%
Jedinstvo or Arsenal Tivat
72%
Draw or Arsenal Tivat
59%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo wins by 2+
18%
Arsenal Tivat wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jedinstvo 1+ goals
72%
Jedinstvo 2+ goals
36%
Jedinstvo 3+ goals
14%
Arsenal Tivat 1+ goals
65%
Arsenal Tivat 2+ goals
29%
Arsenal Tivat 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo (draw refunded)
57%
Arsenal Tivat (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.14 · 73 matches

Arsenal Tivat away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.47 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo attack 1.07 + Arsenal Tivat defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Arsenal Tivat attack 0.99 + Jedinstvo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jedinstvo scores more
41%
level
28%
Arsenal Tivat scores more
31%

Jedinstvo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jedinstvo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Jedinstvo 0–1 Arsenal Tivat

Arsenal Tivat beat Jedinstvo 1-0 in First League on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Bijelo Polje.