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Jedinstvo Ub vs Tutin — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Jedinstvo Ub
Jedinstvo Ub
FT
3 – 0
Tutin
Tutin
3/20/2021Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 20Stadion Dragan Dzajic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Jedinstvo Ub64%
×Draw22%
Tutin14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Ub
1.88
Tutin
0.74

Jedinstvo Ub creates 154% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 56 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Ub
1.93
Tutin
0.88

allows per match

Jedinstvo Ub
0.60
Tutin
1.82

finishing

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par
Tutin+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Ub ↓

Tutin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Ub or draw
86%
Jedinstvo Ub or Tutin
78%
Draw or Tutin
36%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+
39%
Tutin wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals
85%
Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals
56%
Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals
29%
Tutin 1+ goals
52%
Tutin 2+ goals
17%
Tutin 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)
82%
Tutin (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Ub at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.60 · 42 matches

Tutin away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.82 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.93 + Tutin defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.88

Tutin attack 0.88 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Jedinstvo Ub scores more
64%
level
22%
Tutin scores more
14%

Jedinstvo Ub at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Jedinstvo Ub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jedinstvo Ub vs Tutin

Jedinstvo Ub beat Tutin 3-0 in Srpska Liga - West on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dragan Dzajic in Ub.