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Jedinstvo Ub vs TSC Backa Topola — Super Liga 2026

Jedinstvo Ub
Jedinstvo Ub
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
TSC Backa Topola
TSC Backa Topola
E. Hoard 85'
A. Paić 75'
R. Denzell 44'
D. Miladinović 7'
M. Vulić 68' (pen)
3/3/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 26Stadion Event Place

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Jedinstvo Ub29%
×Draw25%
TSC Backa Topola46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Ub
1.16
TSC Backa Topola
1.52

TSC Backa Topola creates 31% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 124 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Ub
1.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.55

allows per match

Jedinstvo Ub
1.50
TSC Backa Topola
1.31

finishing

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par
TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Ub ↓

TSC Backa Topola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Ub or draw
54%
Jedinstvo Ub or TSC Backa Topola
75%
Draw or TSC Backa Topola
71%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+
12%
TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals
69%
Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals
32%
Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals
11%
TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals
78%
TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals
45%
TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)
39%
TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Ub at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

TSC Backa Topola away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.31 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.00 + TSC Backa Topola defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

TSC Backa Topola attack 1.55 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jedinstvo Ub scores more
29%
level
25%
TSC Backa Topola scores more
46%

TSC Backa Topola at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "TSC Backa Topola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
R. DenzellJedinstvo UbJedinstvo Ub · D
7.7

Match Events

7'
D. Miladinović
10'
Danilo MiladinovićGoal confirmed
17'
D. Stevanović← L. Capan
25'
M. Đorđević← D. Stevanović
44'
R. Denzell↳ E. Hoard
45+1'
Issah Abass
58'
Ethan HoardGoal cancelled
58'
Vieljeux Prestige Mboungou
66'
U. Stevančević← R. Denzell
68'
M. VulićPenalty
74'
A. Stančić← P. Stanić
74'
M. Pantović← M. Vulić
75'
A. Paić↳ S. Golubović
80'
Uroš Stevančević
85'
Ethan Hoard
85'
E. Hoard↳ I. Abass
87'
D. Aćimović← I. Rogač
88'
L. Mladenović← S. Rakić
88'
U. Savković← I. Abass
90'
R. Lazić← E. Hoard

Possession

32%Jedinstvo

Shots

12Jedinstvo

Pass accuracy

47%Jedinstvo

Statistics

JedinstvoTSC
Overview
32%Possession68%
12Total Shots16
3Corners9
20Fouls8
Shots
12Total Shots16
7On Target4
2Off Target4
3Blocked8
10Inside Box9
2Outside Box7
Passing
32%Possession68%
198Total Passes411
141Accurate Passes332
71%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
20Fouls8
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Jedinstvo Ub vs TSC Backa Topola

Jedinstvo Ub beat TSC Backa Topola 4-1 in Super Liga on March 3, 2025.

Goals: D. Miladinović (7'), R. Denzell (44'), M. Vulić (68' pen), A. Paić (75'), E. Hoard (85').

TSC Backa Topola controlled possession (68%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadion Event Place in Beograd.