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Jedinstvo Ub vs Tekstilac Odžaci — Prva Liga 2018

Jedinstvo Ub
Jedinstvo Ub
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tekstilac Odžaci
Tekstilac Odžaci
12/2/2023Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 19Stadion Dragan Dzajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Jedinstvo Ub44%
×Draw29%
Tekstilac Odžaci27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Ub
1.27
Tekstilac Odžaci
0.93

Jedinstvo Ub creates 37% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 37 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Ub
1.56
Tekstilac Odžaci
0.84

allows per match

Jedinstvo Ub
1.02
Tekstilac Odžaci
0.97

finishing

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par
Tekstilac Odžaci+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Ub ↓

Tekstilac Odžaci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Ub or draw
73%
Jedinstvo Ub or Tekstilac Odžaci
71%
Draw or Tekstilac Odžaci
56%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+
20%
Tekstilac Odžaci wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals
72%
Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals
36%
Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals
14%
Tekstilac Odžaci 1+ goals
61%
Tekstilac Odžaci 2+ goals
24%
Tekstilac Odžaci 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)
62%
Tekstilac Odžaci (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Ub at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Tekstilac Odžaci away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.56 + Tekstilac Odžaci defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tekstilac Odžaci attack 0.84 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jedinstvo Ub scores more
44%
level
29%
Tekstilac Odžaci scores more
27%

Jedinstvo Ub at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jedinstvo Ub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Jedinstvo Ub 1–1 Tekstilac Odžaci

Jedinstvo Ub and Tekstilac Odžaci drew 1-1 in Prva Liga on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Dragan Dzajić in Ub.