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Jedinstvo Ub vs RAD — Prva Liga 2018

Jedinstvo Ub
Jedinstvo Ub
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
RAD
RAD
8/7/2022Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 2Stadion Dragan Dzajic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Jedinstvo Ub54%
×Draw25%
RAD21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Ub
1.58
RAD
0.89

Jedinstvo Ub creates 78% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 37 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Ub
1.56
RAD
0.76

allows per match

Jedinstvo Ub
1.02
RAD
1.59

finishing

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par
RAD+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Ub ↓

RAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Ub or draw
79%
Jedinstvo Ub or RAD
75%
Draw or RAD
46%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+
28%
RAD wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals
79%
Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals
47%
Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals
21%
RAD 1+ goals
59%
RAD 2+ goals
22%
RAD 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)
72%
RAD (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Ub at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

RAD away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.56 + RAD defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.58

RAD attack 0.76 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Jedinstvo Ub scores more
54%
level
25%
RAD scores more
21%

Jedinstvo Ub at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Jedinstvo Ub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jedinstvo Ub vs RAD

Jedinstvo Ub and RAD drew 0-0 in Prva Liga on August 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Dragan Dzajic in Ub.