Jedinstvo Ub 1–1 Mladost Novi Sad: Result & Stats

Jedinstvo Ub

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mladost Novi Sad

3/7/2024

Prva Liga · Round 23Stadion Dragan Dzajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Jedinstvo Ub40%

×Draw29%

Mladost Novi Sad31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jedinstvo UbExpected goals in this matchMladost Novi Sad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.00

Jedinstvo Ub

1.17

Mladost Novi Sad

1.00

Jedinstvo Ub creates 17% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 55 away

1.56

creates per match

0.98

1.02

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Jedinstvo Ub

1.56

Mladost Novi Sad

0.98

allows per match

Jedinstvo Ub

1.02

Mladost Novi Sad

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Ub ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Ub or draw

69%

Jedinstvo Ub or Mladost Novi Sad

71%

Draw or Mladost Novi Sad

60%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+

17%

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals

69%

Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals

33%

Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals

11%

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

63%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

26%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)

56%

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Ub at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.98, concedes 0.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.56 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.17

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.98 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jedinstvo Ub scores more

40%

level

29%

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

31%

Jedinstvo Ub at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jedinstvo Ub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jedinstvo Ub vs Mladost Novi Sad

Jedinstvo Ub and Mladost Novi Sad drew 1-1 in Prva Liga on March 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dragan Dzajić in Ub.

Jedinstvo Ub vs Mladost Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Jedinstvo Ub vs Mladost Novi Sad