Jedinstvo Ub 2–2 Macva: Result & Stats | Prva Liga

Jedinstvo Ub

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Macva

8/26/2025

Prva Liga · Round 5Stadion Dragan Dzajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Jedinstvo Ub48%

×Draw28%

Macva24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jedinstvo UbExpected goals in this matchMacva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.89

Jedinstvo Ub

1.37

Macva

0.89

Jedinstvo Ub creates 54% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 91 away

1.56

creates per match

0.75

1.02

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Jedinstvo Ub

1.56

Macva

0.75

allows per match

Jedinstvo Ub

1.02

Macva

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

Macva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Ub ↓

Macva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Ub or draw

76%

Jedinstvo Ub or Macva

72%

Draw or Macva

52%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+

23%

Macva wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals

75%

Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals

40%

Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals

16%

Macva 1+ goals

59%

Macva 2+ goals

22%

Macva 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)

66%

Macva (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Ub at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Macva away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.18 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.56 + Macva defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.37

Macva attack 0.75 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jedinstvo Ub scores more

48%

level

28%

Macva scores more

24%

Jedinstvo Ub at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jedinstvo Ub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff