Jedinstvo Ub 2–1 FAP: Result & Stats | Prva Liga

Jedinstvo Ub

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

FAP

R. Denzell 27'

E. Okain 5'

M. Otasevic 81'

3/22/2026

Prva Liga · Round 28Stadion Dragan Dzajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Jedinstvo Ub53%

×Draw24%

FAP23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jedinstvo UbExpected goals in this matchFAP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.04

Jedinstvo Ub

1.73

FAP

1.04

Jedinstvo Ub creates 66% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 20 away

1.56

creates per match

1.05

1.02

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Jedinstvo Ub

1.56

FAP

1.05

allows per match

Jedinstvo Ub

1.02

FAP

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jedinstvo Ub+0.00on par

FAP+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Ub ↓

FAP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Ub or draw

77%

Jedinstvo Ub or FAP

76%

Draw or FAP

47%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Ub wins by 2+

29%

FAP wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Ub 1+ goals

82%

Jedinstvo Ub 2+ goals

52%

Jedinstvo Ub 3+ goals

25%

FAP 1+ goals

65%

FAP 2+ goals

28%

FAP 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Ub (draw refunded)

70%

FAP (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Ub at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

FAP away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Ub attack 1.56 + FAP defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.73

FAP attack 1.05 + Jedinstvo Ub defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Jedinstvo Ub scores more

53%

level

24%

FAP scores more

23%

Jedinstvo Ub at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Jedinstvo Ub will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

16'

27'

49'

50'

58'

64'

M. Susnjar← G. Gerzel

69'

A. Hamadu← R. Denzell

72'

D. Danicic← F. Antonijevic

78'

P. Ristic← B. Antwi

78'

M. Otasevic← M. Miraljemovic

78'

P. Soskic← D. Dubackic

79'

N. Paunovic← D. Lisanin

79'

V. Petrovic← V. Veskovic

81'

84'

84'

90+3'

90+6'

L. Raicevic← N. Jokic

Jedinstvo

FAP

12

Tasic

4

▼

Miraljemo

6

Bogdanovi

7

Obucina

8

▼

Antwi

10

▼

11

13

26

29

▼

Antonijev

33

▼

Dubackic

33

Pavlicic

2

Cuk

11

▼

Lisanin

17

⚽

Okain

22

Paic

23

▼

Jokic

25

Savkovic

26

Acimovic

31

⚽

▼

Denzell

36

Terzic

55

▼

Veskovic

Manager: Uros Matic

69'▲A. Hamadu←▼R. Denzell

79'▲N. Paunovic←▼D. Lisanin

79'▲V. Petrovic←▼V. Veskovic

90+6'▲L. Raicevic←▼N. Jokic

Jedinstvo Ub substitutes

75Pesic89Jovanovic9Paunovic14Kesikj16Hamadu39Miljkovic42Raicevic44Boskovic77Golubovic88Petrovic99Ferreira

Manager: Zoran Kostic

64'▲M. Susnjar←▼G. Gerzel

72'▲D. Danicic←▼F. Antonijevic

78'▲P. Ristic←▼B. Antwi

78'▲M. Otasevic←▼M. Miraljemovic

78'▲P. Soskic←▼D. Dubackic

FAP substitutes

1Golovic21Prodanovic2Susic3Divac9Ristic14Otasevic15Tesanovic17Soskic20Susnjar24Wypart55Danicic