Jedinstvo Su 0–0 BASK: Result & Stats

Jedinstvo Su

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

BASK

4/13/2025

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 20Stadion FK Jedinstvo Surčin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Jedinstvo Su42%

×Draw29%

BASK29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jedinstvo SuExpected goals in this matchBASK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.96

Jedinstvo Su

1.23

BASK

0.96

Jedinstvo Su creates 28% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 90 away

1.31

creates per match

0.92

1.00

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Jedinstvo Su

1.31

BASK

0.92

allows per match

Jedinstvo Su

1.00

BASK

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jedinstvo Su+0.00on par

BASK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Su ↓

BASK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Su or draw

71%

Jedinstvo Su or BASK

71%

Draw or BASK

58%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Su wins by 2+

19%

BASK wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Su 1+ goals

71%

Jedinstvo Su 2+ goals

35%

Jedinstvo Su 3+ goals

13%

BASK 1+ goals

62%

BASK 2+ goals

25%

BASK 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Su (draw refunded)

60%

BASK (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Su at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.00 · 97 matches

BASK away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.14 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Su attack 1.31 + BASK defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

BASK attack 0.92 + Jedinstvo Su defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jedinstvo Su scores more

42%

level

29%

BASK scores more

29%

Jedinstvo Su at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jedinstvo Su will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff