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Jedinstvo Stara Pazova vs Stari Grad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
FT
1 – 0
Stari Grad
Stari Grad
8/14/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 1Stadion FK Jedinstvo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova51%
×Draw24%
Stari Grad24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.66
Stari Grad
1.06

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova creates 57% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 34 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.38
Stari Grad
1.09

allows per match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.04
Stari Grad
1.94

finishing

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova+0.00on par
Stari Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova ↓

Stari Grad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova or draw
76%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova or Stari Grad
76%
Draw or Stari Grad
49%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova wins by 2+
27%
Stari Grad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1+ goals
81%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2+ goals
49%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 3+ goals
23%
Stari Grad 1+ goals
65%
Stari Grad 2+ goals
29%
Stari Grad 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova (draw refunded)
68%
Stari Grad (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.04 · 79 matches

Stari Grad away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.38 + Stari Grad defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.66

Stari Grad attack 1.09 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova scores more
51%
level
24%
Stari Grad scores more
24%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jedinstvo Stara Pazova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1–0 Stari Grad

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova beat Stari Grad 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Jedinstvo in Stara Pazova.