Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 3–0 Sloven Ruma

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sloven Ruma

9/20/2025

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Round 6Stadion FK Feniks 1995

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova38%

×Draw26%

Sloven Ruma36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jedinstvo Stara PazovaExpected goals in this matchSloven Ruma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.31

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.34

Sloven Ruma

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 30 away

1.38

creates per match

1.57

1.04

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.38

Sloven Ruma

1.57

allows per match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.04

Sloven Ruma

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova+0.00on par

Sloven Ruma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova ↓

Sloven Ruma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova or draw

64%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova or Sloven Ruma

74%

Draw or Sloven Ruma

62%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova wins by 2+

17%

Sloven Ruma wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1+ goals

74%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2+ goals

39%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 3+ goals

15%

Sloven Ruma 1+ goals

73%

Sloven Ruma 2+ goals

38%

Sloven Ruma 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova (draw refunded)

51%

Sloven Ruma (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.04 · 79 matches

Sloven Ruma away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.38 + Sloven Ruma defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Sloven Ruma attack 1.57 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova scores more

38%

level

26%

Sloven Ruma scores more

36%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jedinstvo Stara Pazova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff