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Jedinstvo Stara Pazova vs Radnički Sombor — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
FT
1 – 0
Radnički Sombor
Radnički Sombor
4/23/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 24Stadion FK Jedinstvo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova43%
×Draw26%
Radnički Sombor31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.42
Radnički Sombor
1.17

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova creates 21% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 49 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.38
Radnički Sombor
1.29

allows per match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.04
Radnički Sombor
1.47

finishing

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova+0.00on par
Radnički Sombor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova ↓

Radnički Sombor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova or draw
69%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova or Radnički Sombor
74%
Draw or Radnički Sombor
57%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova wins by 2+
20%
Radnički Sombor wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1+ goals
76%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2+ goals
41%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 3+ goals
17%
Radnički Sombor 1+ goals
69%
Radnički Sombor 2+ goals
33%
Radnički Sombor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova (draw refunded)
58%
Radnički Sombor (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.04 · 79 matches

Radnički Sombor away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.38 + Radnički Sombor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Radnički Sombor attack 1.29 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova scores more
43%
level
26%
Radnički Sombor scores more
31%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jedinstvo Stara Pazova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1–0 Radnički Sombor

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova beat Radnički Sombor 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Jedinstvo in Stara Pazova.