Jedinstvo Stara Pazova vs Naftagas — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 60+ matches
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova41%
Naftagas32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova creates 17% more chances
Season form · 79 home / 60 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.04 · 79 matches
Naftagas away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.40 · 60 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.38 + Naftagas defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.39
Naftagas attack 1.33 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Jedinstvo Stara Pazova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Železničar Pančevo
Bačka 1901
Radnički Zrenjanin
OFK Vršac
Dinamo Pančevo
Radnički Sombor
Bratstvo Prigrevica
FK Becej
Omladinac NB
Radnički Sr. Mitrovica
1. Maj Ruma
Borac Sakule
Vojvodina 1928
Kozara
Hajduk 1912 Kula
Dunav Stari BanovciIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova host Naftagas on Saturday, 2 March 2024 at 13:30. The match is part of the Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019/2020 season.
Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1–0 Naftagas
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova beat Naftagas 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on March 2, 2024.
The match was played at Stadion FK Jedinstvo in Stara Pazova.