Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2–0 Mladost Novi Sad

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

FT

2 – 0

Mladost Novi Sad

8/30/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 4Stadion FK Jedinstvo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova30%

×Draw26%

Mladost Novi Sad44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jedinstvo Stara PazovaExpected goals in this matchMladost Novi Sad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.44

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.14

Mladost Novi Sad

1.44

Mladost Novi Sad creates 26% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 19 away

1.38

creates per match

1.84

1.04

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.38

Mladost Novi Sad

1.84

allows per match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

1.04

Mladost Novi Sad

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova+0.00on par

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova or draw

56%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova or Mladost Novi Sad

74%

Draw or Mladost Novi Sad

70%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova wins by 2+

12%

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1+ goals

68%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2+ goals

32%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 3+ goals

11%

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

76%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

42%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova (draw refunded)

41%

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.04 · 79 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 1.84, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.38 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.14

Mladost Novi Sad attack 1.84 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova scores more

30%

level

26%

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

44%

Mladost Novi Sad at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mladost Novi Sad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff