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Jedinstvo Stara Pazova vs Backa — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Backa
Backa
11/22/2025Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Round 15Stadion FK Feniks 1995

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova52%
×Draw26%
Backa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.54
Backa
0.91

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova creates 69% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 37 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.38
Backa
0.78

allows per match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.04
Backa
1.70

finishing

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova+0.00on par
Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova ↓

Backa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova or draw
78%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova or Backa
74%
Draw or Backa
48%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova wins by 2+
27%
Backa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1+ goals
79%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2+ goals
45%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 3+ goals
20%
Backa 1+ goals
60%
Backa 2+ goals
23%
Backa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova (draw refunded)
70%
Backa (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.04 · 79 matches

Backa away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.38 + Backa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.54

Backa attack 0.78 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova scores more
52%
level
26%
Backa scores more
22%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Jedinstvo Stara Pazova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jedinstvo Stara Pazova vs Backa

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova and Backa drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 22, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion FK Feniks 1995 in Stara Pazova.