Jedinstvo Paraćin 1–1 Toplicanin Prokuplje

Jedinstvo Paraćin

FT

1 – 1

Toplicanin Prokuplje

11/14/2020

Srpska Liga - East · East - 17Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Jedinstvo Paraćin53%

×Draw23%

Toplicanin Prokuplje24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jedinstvo ParaćinExpected goals in this matchToplicanin Prokuplje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.14

Jedinstvo Paraćin

1.83

Toplicanin Prokuplje

1.14

Jedinstvo Paraćin creates 61% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 42 away

1.67

creates per match

1.10

1.17

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin

1.67

Toplicanin Prokuplje

1.10

allows per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin

1.17

Toplicanin Prokuplje

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jedinstvo Paraćin+0.00on par

Toplicanin Prokuplje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Paraćin ↓

Toplicanin Prokuplje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Paraćin or draw

76%

Jedinstvo Paraćin or Toplicanin Prokuplje

77%

Draw or Toplicanin Prokuplje

47%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Paraćin wins by 2+

30%

Toplicanin Prokuplje wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Paraćin 1+ goals

84%

Jedinstvo Paraćin 2+ goals

54%

Jedinstvo Paraćin 3+ goals

28%

Toplicanin Prokuplje 1+ goals

68%

Toplicanin Prokuplje 2+ goals

32%

Toplicanin Prokuplje 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Paraćin (draw refunded)

69%

Toplicanin Prokuplje (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Paraćin at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

Toplicanin Prokuplje away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Paraćin attack 1.67 + Toplicanin Prokuplje defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Toplicanin Prokuplje attack 1.10 + Jedinstvo Paraćin defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Jedinstvo Paraćin scores more

53%

level

23%

Toplicanin Prokuplje scores more

24%

Jedinstvo Paraćin at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Jedinstvo Paraćin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff