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Jedinstvo Paraćin vs Timočanin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jedinstvo Paraćin
Jedinstvo Paraćin
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Timočanin
Timočanin
5/13/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 26Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Jedinstvo Paraćin50%
×Draw24%
Timočanin25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.67
Timočanin
1.11

Jedinstvo Paraćin creates 50% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 73 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.67
Timočanin
1.05

allows per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.17
Timočanin
1.67

finishing

Jedinstvo Paraćin+0.00on par
Timočanin+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Paraćin ↓

Timočanin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Paraćin or draw
75%
Jedinstvo Paraćin or Timočanin
76%
Draw or Timočanin
50%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Paraćin wins by 2+
27%
Timočanin wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Paraćin 1+ goals
81%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 2+ goals
50%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 3+ goals
23%
Timočanin 1+ goals
67%
Timočanin 2+ goals
30%
Timočanin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Paraćin (draw refunded)
67%
Timočanin (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Paraćin at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

Timočanin away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Paraćin attack 1.67 + Timočanin defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Timočanin attack 1.05 + Jedinstvo Paraćin defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jedinstvo Paraćin scores more
50%
level
24%
Timočanin scores more
25%

Jedinstvo Paraćin at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jedinstvo Paraćin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Jedinstvo Paraćin 1–2 Timočanin

Timočanin beat Jedinstvo Paraćin 2-1 in Srpska Liga - East on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Paraćin.