Jedinstvo Paraćin 13–0 Moravac Mrštane

Jedinstvo Paraćin

FT

13 – 0

Moravac Mrštane

5/8/2021

Srpska Liga - East · East - 33Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Jedinstvo Paraćin76%

×Draw14%

Moravac Mrštane10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jedinstvo ParaćinExpected goals in this matchMoravac Mrštane

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

0.98

Jedinstvo Paraćin

2.92

Moravac Mrštane

0.98

Jedinstvo Paraćin creates 198% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 28 away

1.67

creates per match

0.79

1.17

allows per match

4.18

creates per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin

1.67

Moravac Mrštane

0.79

allows per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin

1.17

Moravac Mrštane

4.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jedinstvo Paraćin+0.00on par

Moravac Mrštane+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Paraćin ↓

Moravac Mrštane →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Paraćin or draw

90%

Jedinstvo Paraćin or Moravac Mrštane

86%

Draw or Moravac Mrštane

24%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Paraćin wins by 2+

56%

Moravac Mrštane wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Paraćin 1+ goals

94%

Jedinstvo Paraćin 2+ goals

78%

Jedinstvo Paraćin 3+ goals

55%

Moravac Mrštane 1+ goals

62%

Moravac Mrštane 2+ goals

26%

Moravac Mrštane 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Paraćin (draw refunded)

88%

Moravac Mrštane (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Paraćin at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

Moravac Mrštane away — creates 0.79, concedes 4.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Paraćin attack 1.67 + Moravac Mrštane defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 2.92

Moravac Mrštane attack 0.79 + Jedinstvo Paraćin defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Jedinstvo Paraćin scores more

76%

level

14%

Moravac Mrštane scores more

10%

Jedinstvo Paraćin at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Jedinstvo Paraćin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff