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Jedinstvo Paraćin vs Djerdap Kladovo — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jedinstvo Paraćin
Jedinstvo Paraćin
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Djerdap Kladovo
Djerdap Kladovo
5/9/2026Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Jedinstvo Paraćin55%
×Draw22%
Djerdap Kladovo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.92
Djerdap Kladovo
1.17

Jedinstvo Paraćin creates 64% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 44 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.67
Djerdap Kladovo
1.18

allows per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.17
Djerdap Kladovo
2.16

finishing

Jedinstvo Paraćin+0.00on par
Djerdap Kladovo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Paraćin ↓

Djerdap Kladovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Paraćin or draw
77%
Jedinstvo Paraćin or Djerdap Kladovo
78%
Draw or Djerdap Kladovo
45%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Paraćin wins by 2+
32%
Djerdap Kladovo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Paraćin 1+ goals
85%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 2+ goals
57%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 3+ goals
30%
Djerdap Kladovo 1+ goals
69%
Djerdap Kladovo 2+ goals
33%
Djerdap Kladovo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Paraćin (draw refunded)
70%
Djerdap Kladovo (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Paraćin at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

Djerdap Kladovo away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.16 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Paraćin attack 1.67 + Djerdap Kladovo defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.92

Djerdap Kladovo attack 1.18 + Jedinstvo Paraćin defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Jedinstvo Paraćin scores more
55%
level
22%
Djerdap Kladovo scores more
23%

Jedinstvo Paraćin at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Jedinstvo Paraćin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Jedinstvo Paraćin 1–4 Djerdap Kladovo

Djerdap Kladovo beat Jedinstvo Paraćin 4-1 in Srpska Liga - East on May 9, 2026.