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Jedinstvo Paraćin vs Budućnost Popovac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jedinstvo Paraćin
Jedinstvo Paraćin
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Budućnost Popovac
Budućnost Popovac
8/26/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 3Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Jedinstvo Paraćin44%
×Draw25%
Budućnost Popovac31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.56
Budućnost Popovac
1.28

Jedinstvo Paraćin creates 22% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 87 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.67
Budućnost Popovac
1.40

allows per match

Jedinstvo Paraćin
1.17
Budućnost Popovac
1.45

finishing

Jedinstvo Paraćin+0.00on par
Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Paraćin ↓

Budućnost Popovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Paraćin or draw
69%
Jedinstvo Paraćin or Budućnost Popovac
75%
Draw or Budućnost Popovac
56%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Paraćin wins by 2+
22%
Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Paraćin 1+ goals
79%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 2+ goals
46%
Jedinstvo Paraćin 3+ goals
21%
Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals
72%
Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals
37%
Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Paraćin (draw refunded)
58%
Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Paraćin at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

Budućnost Popovac away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.45 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Paraćin attack 1.67 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.56

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.40 + Jedinstvo Paraćin defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jedinstvo Paraćin scores more
44%
level
25%
Budućnost Popovac scores more
31%

Jedinstvo Paraćin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jedinstvo Paraćin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Jedinstvo Paraćin 2–2 Budućnost Popovac

Jedinstvo Paraćin and Budućnost Popovac drew 2-2 in Srpska Liga - East on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Paraćin.